998
FXUS65 KBOU 092044
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
144 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather this afternoon especially
  across the plains near the Colorado border with Wyoming-
  Nebraska.

- Light snow possible for the northern mountains Tuesday and
  Tuesday night.

- Periods of mountain snowfall expected Wednesday through Saturday
  morning. Rain and snow showers possible across the plains Friday
  and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 0144 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

Water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge flattening over
Colorado as a shortwave treks just north of us. This has allowed
winds to gust up to 65 mph across the Front Range mountains this
morning, with wind prone areas off the foothills gusting up to
35-40 mph at times. Expect these gusty westerly winds to continue
through the late afternoon, before weakening by sunset. In terms
of temperatures, with mostly clear skies and ample mixing due to
downslope winds, many places across the urban corridor and plains
have already reached high 60s (70 in some areas). Expect
temperatures to raise a few more degrees this afternoon. Have
adjusted the Max T to reflect this. DIA has the potential to break
the record for the high temperature today (73 degrees set in
1964). We will have to wait and see.

Widespread elevated fire weather conditions will continue across
the plains this afternoon, as current observations show relative
humidity values 15% or below for the majority of the plains.
However, with relatively light winds (less than 20-25 mph) across
the area, we have opted out of any widespread fire weather
highlights. The only exception is the northern plains, where the
current Red Flag Warning is in effect until 5 PM. Winds are
beginning to pick up to 30-35 mph across the Colorado/Wyoming
border, and we expect them to continue through the late afternoon.

A cold front will arrive early this evening, bringing an influx in
moisture which will decrease the fire weather threat. Expect
gusty northerly winds behind the front, particularly for areas off
the Cheyenne Ridge. Hi-res guidance has continued to indicate
brief gusts up to 50 mph tonight, before weakening to 20-30 mph
after midnight. Tuesday will see slightly cooler temperatures,
with highs expected to be in the high 40s across most of the
plains. With the increase in moisture, light snow showers are
possible for the northern mountains, with minimal accumulations
expected.

Flat upper level ridging returns to the state on Wednesday, with
slightly southwesterly flow as a trough off the coast of
California begins traveling east. Pacific moisture will trickle into
the region, allowing for more widespread snow for the mountains
by the afternoon. Due to warm temperatures, expect snow levels to
be around 8000-9000 ft. Unfortunately, the plains will likely
remain dry on Wednesday. Breezy downslope winds will allow
temperatures to reach the high 50s to low 60s due to compressional
heating.

Guidance has been in good agreement of precipitation chances
increasing for the plains late Thursday. However, the exact timing
is still uncertain as ensembles are still struggling on how to
handle the shortwave breaking down the upper level ridge. For now,
looks like models have trended towards a slightly later timing,
with Friday as the best chance for measurable precipitation.
However, any precipitation that does fall will be light, as
ensembles only show a couple hundredths of QPF. Temperatures may
be too warm for snowfall for the majority of the plains, with the
Palmer Divide as the only area that upslope flow would support
light snowfall. For the mountains, expect periods of snow to
continue through Saturday morning. After the shortwave exits the
region, broad upper level ridging will return, along with above
normal temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1043 AM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Rather
uncertain wind forecast today with a few competing wind regimes. A
well-defined channel of stronger westerly flow has emerged off the
foothills and is near BJC to the Arsenal RAWS, while the rest of
the prevailing flow is generally southwesterly (DEN/APA). That has
led to the development of a very weakly defined Denver cyclone...
which could eventually turns winds to a light northerly flow at
DEN by this afternoon. The TAF was not changed significantly but
does hold on to the W/WSW winds through most of the afternoon at
DEN, and increased the gusts at BJC through 21z.

By this evening, a cold front should turn winds to the north-
northeast as early as 02-03z, with a gradual clockwise turn
overnight. There is a low (

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion