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998 FXUS65 KBOU 092044 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 144 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather this afternoon especially across the plains near the Colorado border with Wyoming- Nebraska. - Light snow possible for the northern mountains Tuesday and Tuesday night. - Periods of mountain snowfall expected Wednesday through Saturday morning. Rain and snow showers possible across the plains Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 0144 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026 Water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge flattening over Colorado as a shortwave treks just north of us. This has allowed winds to gust up to 65 mph across the Front Range mountains this morning, with wind prone areas off the foothills gusting up to 35-40 mph at times. Expect these gusty westerly winds to continue through the late afternoon, before weakening by sunset. In terms of temperatures, with mostly clear skies and ample mixing due to downslope winds, many places across the urban corridor and plains have already reached high 60s (70 in some areas). Expect temperatures to raise a few more degrees this afternoon. Have adjusted the Max T to reflect this. DIA has the potential to break the record for the high temperature today (73 degrees set in 1964). We will have to wait and see. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the plains this afternoon, as current observations show relative humidity values 15% or below for the majority of the plains. However, with relatively light winds (less than 20-25 mph) across the area, we have opted out of any widespread fire weather highlights. The only exception is the northern plains, where the current Red Flag Warning is in effect until 5 PM. Winds are beginning to pick up to 30-35 mph across the Colorado/Wyoming border, and we expect them to continue through the late afternoon. A cold front will arrive early this evening, bringing an influx in moisture which will decrease the fire weather threat. Expect gusty northerly winds behind the front, particularly for areas off the Cheyenne Ridge. Hi-res guidance has continued to indicate brief gusts up to 50 mph tonight, before weakening to 20-30 mph after midnight. Tuesday will see slightly cooler temperatures, with highs expected to be in the high 40s across most of the plains. With the increase in moisture, light snow showers are possible for the northern mountains, with minimal accumulations expected. Flat upper level ridging returns to the state on Wednesday, with slightly southwesterly flow as a trough off the coast of California begins traveling east. Pacific moisture will trickle into the region, allowing for more widespread snow for the mountains by the afternoon. Due to warm temperatures, expect snow levels to be around 8000-9000 ft. Unfortunately, the plains will likely remain dry on Wednesday. Breezy downslope winds will allow temperatures to reach the high 50s to low 60s due to compressional heating. Guidance has been in good agreement of precipitation chances increasing for the plains late Thursday. However, the exact timing is still uncertain as ensembles are still struggling on how to handle the shortwave breaking down the upper level ridge. For now, looks like models have trended towards a slightly later timing, with Friday as the best chance for measurable precipitation. However, any precipitation that does fall will be light, as ensembles only show a couple hundredths of QPF. Temperatures may be too warm for snowfall for the majority of the plains, with the Palmer Divide as the only area that upslope flow would support light snowfall. For the mountains, expect periods of snow to continue through Saturday morning. After the shortwave exits the region, broad upper level ridging will return, along with above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1043 AM MST Mon Feb 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Rather uncertain wind forecast today with a few competing wind regimes. A well-defined channel of stronger westerly flow has emerged off the foothills and is near BJC to the Arsenal RAWS, while the rest of the prevailing flow is generally southwesterly (DEN/APA). That has led to the development of a very weakly defined Denver cyclone... which could eventually turns winds to a light northerly flow at DEN by this afternoon. The TAF was not changed significantly but does hold on to the W/WSW winds through most of the afternoon at DEN, and increased the gusts at BJC through 21z. By this evening, a cold front should turn winds to the north- northeast as early as 02-03z, with a gradual clockwise turn overnight. There is a low (